BCREA ECONOMICS NOW: Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision - March 6, 2013
BCREA ECONOMICS NOW
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision - March 6, 2013
The Bank of Canada announced this morning that it is holding its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank sees economic growth in Canada picking-up through 2013, as growth in exports and business investment offset a slowdown in household spending and residential construction. On inflation, the Bank noted that low core and total CPI inflation have been more subdued than the Bank projected, owing to significant excess capacity in the economy. Given low inflation and what the Bank terms a "constructive evolution of imbalances" in the household sector (meaning a lower pace of debt accumulation), the Bank has walked back its previous rate tightening bias stating that, "current levels of monetary stimulus will likely remain appropriate for a period of time, after which some modest withdrawal will likely be required."
Weak economic growth through the second half of last year will likely bleed into the first half of 2013, which means a continuation of subdued inflation of just over 1 per cent. In fact, the outlook for growth and inflation is weak enough that, if the Bank had not spent the last year voicing concern over the perilous state of household finances, a 25 basis point cut in the Bank’s overnight target would be increasingly likely. Instead, the Bank will put a future rate hike on hold for the foreseeable future, with rates gradually increasing in 2014.
For more information, please contact:
Cameron Muir | Brendon Ogmundson |
Chief Economist | Economist |
Direct: 604.742.2780 | Direct: 604.742.2796 |
Mobile: 778.229.1884 | Mobile: 604.505.6793 |
Email: cmuir@bcrea.bc.ca | Email: bogmundson@bcrea.bc.ca |
BCREA represents 11 member real estate boards and their approximately 18,000 REALTORS® on all provincial issues, providing an extensive communications network, standard forms, economic research and analysis, government relations, applied practice courses and continuing professional education (cpe).
Real estate boards, real estate associations and REALTORS® may reprint this content, provided that credit is given to BCREA by including the following statement: “Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.” BCREA makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
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